Updated at 2025-06-08 17:33:37.598563

Conversion successful!
Created: C:/Users/Chris/Python/format_csv.py
Before update data summary:
  Date range: 2011-08-18 to 2025-06-07
  Number of rows: 5010

CSV is already up to date.
After update (unchanged) data summary:
  Date range: 2011-08-18 to 2025-06-07
  Number of rows: 5010

=== CALLING bitcoin_analysis_package ===
Before update data summary:
  Date range: 2011-08-18 to 2025-06-07
  Number of rows: 5010

CSV is already up to date.
After update (unchanged) data summary:
  Date range: 2011-08-18 to 2025-06-07
  Number of rows: 5010


✅ Complete Bitcoin analysis completed successfully!
=== FINISHED bitcoin_analysis_package ===

Output folder: C:\Users\Chris\Downloads\btc_report\btc_report_2025-06-08
Success! PDF saved to: C:\Users\Chris\Downloads\btc_report\btc_report_2025-06-08\btc_report_2025-06-08.pdf
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1-Month Period Performance:
  Rank Period Mean Return Median Return Success Rate Min Return Max Return Count Is Current Year4 Mean Year4 Median Year4 Success Year4 Count Year1 Mean Year1 Median Year1 Success Year1 Count Year2 Mean Year2 Median Year2 Success Year2 Count Year3 Mean Year3 Median Year3 Success Year3 Count
9 1 October 16.71% 14.6% 72.94% -31.96% 61.22% 425 False 10.93% 12.75% 75% 124 49.98% 48.73% 100% 93 -4.05% -4.46% 33.33% 93 12.82% 28.54% 80.87% 115
1 2 February 11.48% 11.63% 71.21% -31.49% 65.17% 396 False 10.85% 4.71% 50% 116 26.93% 30.1% 75% 112 -5.89% 1.63% 66.67% 84 9.11% 11.06% 100% 84
10 3 November 40.82% 11.54% 65.06% -37.01% 450.16% 415 False 24.9% 25.19% 100% 120 165.87% 54.61% 66.67% 90 -13.89% -16.22% 33.33% 90 2.39% 8.8% 52.17% 115
6 4 July 10.19% 9.92% 69.23% -9.06% 40.61% 403 False 15.4% 13.69% 75% 124 14.7% 15.83% 100% 93 9.59% 16.84% 66.67% 93 -0.68% -4.06% 33.33% 93
0 5 January 5.72% 9.7% 57.54% -32.43% 54.53% 431 False 8.05% 8.22% 75% 124 19.57% 12% 75% 124 -11.31% -16.74% 33.33% 93 1.04% -7.6% 34.44% 90
4 6 May 9.92% 7.06% 57.14% -35.39% 70.36% 434 False 11.01% 10.39% 100% 124 9.38% 1.28% 50% 124 1.75% -15.61% 33.33% 93 17.37% -3.2% 33.33% 93
3 7 April 11.25% 5.4% 64.29% -17.32% 46.47% 420 False 7.41% 5.19% 75% 120 21.22% 20.07% 75% 120 4.94% -1.31% 33.33% 90 9.42% 2.67% 66.67% 90
5 8 June 1.28% 2.12% 54.66% -37.3% 27.85% 397 True 10.71% 11.08% 50% 120 -8.79% -6.02% 38.14% 97 -16.65% -14.77% 33.33% 90 17.51% 14.67% 100% 90
2 9 March 12.27% -1.96% 42.86% -32.83% 186.76% 434 False -3.75% -3.43% 25% 124 51.09% 13.88% 50% 124 -15.03% -17.57% 33.33% 93 9.15% 8.05% 66.67% 93
8 10 September -4.03% -3.11% 36.32% -39.75% 19.8% 413 False 6.54% 6.96% 75% 120 -5.63% -6.97% 0% 90 -9.14% -5.96% 0% 90 -9.92% 2.58% 53.1% 113
11 11 December 6.64% -3.2% 49.65% -34.61% 47.15% 431 False 20.26% 18.54% 75% 124 -4.59% -18.96% 33.33% 93 -8.45% -6.98% 0% 93 12.92% 12% 74.38% 121
7 12 August 1.67% -8.31% 37.71% -26.61% 65.78% 411 False -1.24% -2.85% 50% 124 36.78% 30.92% 100% 93 -13.65% -13.86% 0% 93 -13% -11.26% 0% 101 
2-Month Period Performance:
  Rank Period Mean Return Median Return Success Rate Min Return Max Return Count Is Current Year4 Mean Year4 Median Year4 Success Year4 Count Year1 Mean Year1 Median Year1 Success Year1 Count Year2 Mean Year2 Median Year2 Success Year2 Count Year3 Mean Year3 Median Year3 Success Year3 Count
10 1 November-December 40.27% 27.46% 64.29% -41.42% 259.63% 14 False 50.53% 35.82% 100% 4 116.89% 115.72% 66.67% 3 -21.93% -19.35% 0% 3 19.18% 29.92% 75% 4
9 2 October-November 79.1% 25.99% 64.29% -39.81% 786.97% 14 False 39.7% 37.14% 100% 4 315.63% 129.95% 100% 3 -18.21% -11.58% 0% 3 14.07% 15.4% 50% 4
8 3 September-October 11.47% 18.8% 71.43% -58.75% 59.14% 14 False 16.89% 18.8% 100% 4 41.76% 35.91% 100% 3 -12.45% -10.16% 33.33% 3 1.26% 14.53% 50% 4
3 4 April-May 23.47% 17.47% 64.29% -36.48% 114.5% 14 False 18.89% 16.99% 75% 4 34.68% 30.36% 75% 4 5.33% 8.17% 66.67% 3 32.77% -4.41% 33.33% 3
1 5 February-March 34.18% 12.27% 64.29% -43.36% 373.65% 14 False 9.36% 0.57% 50% 4 110.7% 44.28% 75% 4 -18.94% -31.73% 33.33% 3 18.37% 19.99% 100% 3
5 6 June-July 11.07% 11.29% 69.23% -26.61% 79.5% 13 True 28.16% 18.71% 75% 4 4.16% 11.29% 66.67% 3 -10.26% -7.29% 33.33% 3 16.54% 18.02% 100% 3
11 7 December-January 12.6% 9.48% 64.29% -42.33% 68.2% 14 False 42.35% 47.52% 100% 4 -19.51% -28.27% 33.33% 3 -7.21% -14.04% 33.33% 3 21.79% 18.09% 75% 4
4 8 May-June 14.13% 5.83% 69.23% -47.06% 104.26% 13 False 23% 19.82% 100% 4 2.47% -35.99% 33.33% 3 -11.73% -30.92% 33.33% 3 39.81% 11.01% 100% 3
0 9 January-February 18.65% 5.8% 64.29% -25.69% 153.25% 14 False 18.45% 14.02% 100% 4 55.71% 39.64% 75% 4 -19.04% -24.85% 0% 3 7.19% 2.64% 66.67% 3
2 10 March-April 27.83% 1.93% 64.29% -18.66% 317.18% 14 False 0.8% 0.7% 75% 4 92.47% 20.5% 100% 4 -13.99% -12.91% 0% 3 19.5% 26.31% 66.67% 3
6 11 July-August 13.69% 0.49% 53.85% -25.15% 92.02% 13 False 15.31% 10.82% 50% 4 56.56% 43.16% 100% 3 -4.92% 0.49% 66.67% 3 -12.73% -12.46% 0% 3
7 12 August-September 0.14% -5.1% 30.77% -32.98% 51.48% 13 False 5.56% -2.16% 25% 4 28.76% 29.13% 100% 3 -21.39% -16.59% 0% 3 -14.18% -17.03% 0% 3 
3-Month Period Performance:
  Rank Period Mean Return Median Return Success Rate Min Return Max Return Count Is Current Year4 Mean Year4 Median Year4 Success Year4 Count Year1 Mean Year1 Median Year1 Success Year1 Count Year2 Mean Year2 Median Year2 Success Year2 Count Year3 Mean Year3 Median Year3 Success Year3 Count
10 1 November-January 47.09% 30.53% 78.57% -45.86% 294.52% 14 False 77.59% 65.94% 100% 4 105% 57.73% 66.67% 3 -22.95% -35.83% 33.33% 3 25.69% 20.64% 100% 4
9 2 October-December 73.81% 27.94% 64.29% -44.02% 479.8% 14 False 70.92% 53.16% 100% 4 235.36% 220.84% 100% 3 -25.5% -17.6% 0% 3 30.04% 25.57% 50% 4
8 3 September-November 74.26% 25.94% 64.29% -60.13% 775.53% 14 False 46.1% 46.78% 100% 4 302.19% 110.12% 100% 3 -26.35% -21.29% 0% 3 6.92% 12.09% 50% 4
4 4 May-July 23.52% 20.24% 61.54% -38.04% 111.72% 13 False 41.29% 35.36% 100% 4 17.93% -28.21% 33.33% 3 -8.28% -16.42% 33.33% 3 37.2% 20.24% 66.67% 3
1 5 February-April 55.46% 15% 57.14% -44.1% 589.06% 14 False 11.74% 7.03% 50% 4 173.9% 57.28% 75% 4 -18.41% -8.94% 0% 3 29.68% 26.37% 100% 3
11 6 December-February 29.23% 14.17% 64.29% -50.86% 170.62% 14 False 87.04% 95.07% 75% 4 -23.75% -24.28% 33.33% 3 -0.78% -4.51% 33.33% 3 33.66% 29.88% 100% 4
2 7 March-May 37.2% 12.29% 71.43% -27.37% 281.48% 14 False 11.63% 10.57% 100% 4 95.25% 58.51% 75% 4 -13.37% -26.51% 33.33% 3 44.46% 17.6% 66.67% 3
7 8 August-October 22.15% 11.97% 69.23% -42.08% 125.3% 13 False 15.21% 15.25% 100% 4 93.79% 108.18% 100% 3 -24.16% -18.42% 0% 3 6.07% 8.95% 66.67% 3
3 9 April-June 28.02% 7.61% 61.54% -56.23% 162.95% 13 False 31.56% 38.62% 75% 4 27.83% -6.25% 33.33% 3 -7.69% -7.81% 33.33% 3 59.19% 7.61% 100% 3
0 10 January-March 54.24% 2.72% 50% -50.08% 626.21% 14 False 15.4% 1.61% 50% 4 182.02% 56.73% 75% 4 -29.83% -37.86% 0% 3 19.75% 10.89% 66.67% 3
6 11 July-September 11.88% 1% 53.85% -38.89% 85.15% 13 False 23.85% 9.48% 75% 4 47.23% 41.2% 100% 3 -12.75% -2.68% 33.33% 3 -14.8% -11.5% 0% 3
5 12 June-August 14.48% 0.42% 61.54% -36.88% 106.02% 13 True 28.62% 15.31% 75% 4 44.23% 26.49% 100% 3 -22.3% -23.7% 0% 3 2.65% 0.42% 66.67% 3 
6-Month Period Performance:
  Rank Period Mean Return Median Return Success Rate Min Return Max Return Count Is Current Year4 Mean Year4 Median Year4 Success Year4 Count Year1 Mean Year1 Median Year1 Success Year1 Count Year2 Mean Year2 Median Year2 Success Year2 Count Year3 Mean Year3 Median Year3 Success Year3 Count
8 1 September-February 86.19% 66.01% 64.29% -47.08% 330.1% 14 False 167.12% 168.72% 100% 4 146.54% 117.88% 66.67% 3 -25.88% -45.96% 33.33% 3 44.05% 38.96% 50% 4
9 2 October-March 125.23% 53.4% 78.57% -37.92% 687.47% 14 False 309.75% 260.61% 100% 4 108.09% 60.16% 100% 3 -9.53% -37.3% 33.33% 3 54.63% 38.42% 75% 4
7 3 August-January 103.32% 45.64% 61.54% -62.83% 721.32% 13 False 106.41% 89.49% 100% 4 323.16% 255.38% 66.67% 3 -39.78% -55.83% 0% 3 22.49% 29.44% 66.67% 3
11 4 December-May 104.03% 45.3% 71.43% -44.3% 932.36% 14 False 310.01% 149.6% 100% 4 -37.58% -43.92% 0% 3 44.9% 58.56% 66.67% 3 48.6% 45.3% 100% 4
6 5 July-December 121.97% 45.02% 69.23% -49.84% 718.7% 13 False 102.98% 74.8% 100% 4 404.5% 462.97% 100% 3 -36.4% -42.16% 0% 3 23.14% 38.69% 66.67% 3
0 6 January-June 81.65% 44.32% 69.23% -56.9% 576.21% 13 False 43.8% 46.32% 100% 4 250.72% 155.14% 100% 3 -41.1% -53.99% 0% 3 85.8% 84.33% 66.67% 3
10 7 November-April 135.98% 43.93% 71.43% -38.65% 1171.64% 14 False 404.54% 206.19% 100% 4 41.84% 43.64% 66.67% 3 -1.29% -16.42% 33.33% 3 40.98% 47.41% 75% 4
5 8 June-November 111.69% 42.85% 69.23% -47% 776.49% 13 True 82.81% 75.72% 100% 4 387.4% 332.88% 100% 3 -44.3% -45.97% 0% 3 30.5% 38.57% 66.67% 3
4 9 May-October 54.16% 31.17% 76.92% -45.54% 377% 13 False 63.52% 57.77% 100% 4 142.9% 45.52% 100% 3 -34.02% -31.81% 0% 3 41.12% 31.17% 100% 3
1 10 February-July 75.2% 30.4% 76.92% -39.4% 384.14% 13 False 52.64% 59.83% 100% 4 201.9% 196.25% 100% 3 -30.26% -27.52% 0% 3 84.07% 30.4% 100% 3
2 11 March-August 62.14% 12.04% 61.54% -53.59% 297.45% 13 False 41.85% 33.7% 75% 4 194.46% 281.75% 100% 3 -32.92% -31.97% 0% 3 51.93% 12.04% 66.67% 3
3 12 April-September 44.76% -3.17% 46.15% -57.33% 303.8% 13 False 63.26% 57.17% 75% 4 103.52% 32.2% 66.67% 3 -25.36% -14.01% 0% 3 31.44% -3.17% 33.33% 3
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Analysis includes data from 14 years: 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024

Historical Year-End Returns (Full Year):
2013 (Cycle Year 1): +5437.07%
2017 (Cycle Year 1): +1291.13%
2020 (Cycle Year 4): +303.87%
2012 (Cycle Year 4): +164.80%
2023 (Cycle Year 3): +154.34%
2016 (Cycle Year 4): +122.74%
2024 (Cycle Year 4): +111.33%
2019 (Cycle Year 3): +87.48%
2021 (Cycle Year 1): +57.18%
2015 (Cycle Year 3): +37.31%
2014 (Cycle Year 2): -57.44%
2011 (Cycle Year 3): -57.98%
2022 (Cycle Year 2): -65.41%
2018 (Cycle Year 2): -72.53%

Average Year-End Return: +536.71%
Median Year-End Return: +111.33%

Returns by Cycle Year:
Cycle Year 1 (years: 2013, 2017, 2021):
  Average: +2261.79%
  Sample size: 3 years
Cycle Year 2 (years: 2014, 2022, 2018):
  Average: -65.12%
  Sample size: 3 years
Cycle Year 3 (years: 2023, 2019, 2015, 2011):
  Average: +55.29%
  Sample size: 4 years
Cycle Year 4 (years: 2020, 2012, 2016, 2024):
  Average: +175.69%
  Sample size: 4 years
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Analysis includes 3 years matching cycle year(s) Year 1: 2013, 2017, 2021

Historical Year-End Returns (Full Year):
2013 (Cycle Year 1): +5437.07%
2017 (Cycle Year 1): +1291.13%
2021 (Cycle Year 1): +57.18%

Average Year-End Return (Cycle Year 1): +2261.79%
Median Year-End Return (Cycle Year 1): +1291.13%

Returns by Cycle Year:
Cycle Year 1 (years: 2013, 2017, 2021):
  Average: +2261.79%
  Sample size: 3 years

Calculating best fit line from start to end of data...
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============================================================
BEST FIT LINE FROM START TO END SUMMARY:
============================================================
Total Data Period: 5010 days
R-squared: 0.886471
Scale Type: Log Scale
Daily Growth Rate: 0.1832%
Annual Growth Rate: 95.02%

Historical Performance:
Start Price: $10.90
End Price: $105615.62
Total Change: $105604.73 (968850.69%)

1000-Day Projection:
Projected Price: $1520562.63
Projected Change: $1414947.00 (1339.71%)

Valuation Oscillator Summary:
Current Deviation: -56.70%
Max Overvaluation: 1062.77%
Max Undervaluation: -92.23%
🟢 Currently UNDERVALUED relative to long-term trend

Finding top 3 best fitting linear regression channels for BTC (log scale)...

Top 3 Best Fitting Linear Regression Channels (Log Scale):
================================================================================

1. Window Size: 1000 days
   R-squared: 0.935128
   Daily Growth Rate: 0.1942%
   Annual Growth Rate: 103.05%
   Price Change: $83214.62 (371.48%)
   Start Price: $22401.00
   End Price: $105615.62

2. Window Size: 750 days
   R-squared: 0.883986
   Daily Growth Rate: 0.1975%
   Annual Growth Rate: 105.49%
   Price Change: $78500.62 (289.51%)
   Start Price: $27115.00
   End Price: $105615.62

3. Window Size: 60 days
   R-squared: 0.825069
   Daily Growth Rate: 0.4865%
   Annual Growth Rate: 487.94%
   Price Change: $23020.62 (27.87%)
   Start Price: $82595.00
   End Price: $105615.62

Plotting the top 3 regression channels with adaptive projections...
(Windows ≤100 days: +30d projection, Windows >100 days: +180d projection)
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Results stored in 'top_channels' variable

============================================================
SUMMARY - TOP 3 BEST FITTING CHANNELS:
============================================================

#1. 1000 days | R² = 0.935128
     Annual Growth: 103.05%
     Price Range: $22401 → $105616 (371.5%)

     PRICE PROJECTIONS:
     +30 days: $123,052 ($92,061 - $164,475)
     +60 days: $130,428 ($97,574 - $174,343)
     +90 days: $138,246 ($103,417 - $184,805)

#2. 750 days | R² = 0.883986
     Annual Growth: 105.49%
     Price Range: $27115 → $105616 (289.5%)

     PRICE PROJECTIONS:
     +30 days: $124,224 ($91,592 - $168,483)
     +60 days: $131,800 ($97,167 - $178,777)
     +90 days: $139,838 ($103,081 - $189,702)

#3. 60 days | R² = 0.825069
     Annual Growth: 487.94%
     Price Range: $82595 → $105616 (27.9%)

     PRICE PROJECTIONS:
     +30 days: $130,450 ($119,780 - $142,071)
     +60 days: $150,896 ($137,404 - $165,713)
     +90 days: $174,546 ($157,269 - $193,721)

========================================================================================================================
                           MONTE CARLO SIMULATION SUMMARY TABLE
========================================================================================================================
Method                    Median   Risk/  99% >    95% >    75% >    Median   75% <    95% <    99% <   
Name                      Change   Reward Above    Above    Above    Price    Below    Below    Below   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard GBM (Normal)      +23.0%   3.8:1  $49,139 $66,230 $98,801 $129,870 $171,716 $256,376 $340,040
Fat Tails (Student-t)       +9.2%   2.2:1  $-9,532 $43,912 $84,808 $115,340 $154,470 $238,914 $341,450
Skewed Normal              +27.0%   4.3:1  $58,371 $74,386 $104,990 $134,183 $170,137 $239,190 $301,973
Historical Bootstrap       +23.9%   3.7:1  $48,009 $65,591 $100,296 $130,829 $170,079 $252,680 $332,064
Mixed (Bootstrap + Extremes)  +21.0%   3.0:1  $19,276 $52,681 $94,190 $127,833 $168,926 $262,696 $371,211
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AVERAGE ACROSS METHODS     +20.8%   3.4:1  $33,053 $60,560 $96,617 $127,611 $167,066 $249,971 $337,348
MEDIAN ACROSS METHODS      +23.0%   3.7:1  $48,009 $65,591 $98,801 $129,870 $170,079 $252,680 $340,040
========================================================================================================================

🎯 CONSENSUS FORECAST (Average of All Methods):
• Expected Return (90 days): +20.8%
• Target Price: $127,611
• Risk/Reward Ratio: 3.4:1
• 95% Confidence Range: $60,560 to $249,971
• Extreme Downside (5% chance): Below $60,560 (-42.7%)
• Extreme Upside (5% chance): Above $249,971 (+136.7%)
• 📈 Probability of Profit: 67.9% chance of making money
• 📉 Probability of Loss: 32.1% chance of losing money

================================================================================
     ENHANCED BITCOIN MONTE CARLO SUMMARY (90 Days)
                    Method: Fat Tails (Student-t)
================================================================================
Median outcome: +9.2% change
Risk/Reward ratio: 2.2:1
→ 99% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $-9,532
→ 95% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $43,912
→ 75% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $84,808
→ Median value in 90 days $115,340
→ 75% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $154,470
→ 95% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $238,914
→ 99% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $341,450
================================================================================
→ VaR (5%): $43,912 (-58.4%)
→ VaR (1%): $-9,532 (-109.0%)

📈 PRICE CHART WITH MONTE CARLO LEVELS:
--------------------------------------------------
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================================================================================
     ENHANCED BITCOIN MONTE CARLO SUMMARY (90 Days)
                    Method: Mixed (Bootstrap + Extremes)
================================================================================
Median outcome: +21.0% change
Risk/Reward ratio: 3.0:1
→ 99% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $19,276
→ 95% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $52,681
→ 75% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $94,190
→ Median value in 90 days $127,833
→ 75% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $168,926
→ 95% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $262,696
→ 99% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $371,211
================================================================================
→ VaR (5%): $52,681 (-50.1%)
→ VaR (1%): $19,276 (-81.7%)

📈 PRICE CHART WITH MONTE CARLO LEVELS:
--------------------------------------------------
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========================================================================================================================
                           MONTE CARLO SIMULATION SUMMARY TABLE
========================================================================================================================
Method                    Median   Risk/  99% >    95% >    75% >    Median   75% <    95% <    99% <   
Name                      Change   Reward Above    Above    Above    Price    Below    Below    Below   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard GBM (Normal)      +60.9%   8.0:1  $41,087 $61,711 $113,199 $169,940 $253,286 $458,827 $688,013
Fat Tails (Student-t)      +20.1%   3.4:1  $-100,378 $19,116 $75,756 $126,808 $202,131 $400,459 $689,085
Skewed Normal              +73.7%  11.7:1  $53,597 $76,857 $128,025 $183,443 $262,688 $440,895 $635,072
Historical Bootstrap       +64.6%   8.2:1  $39,048 $61,180 $115,870 $173,888 $258,704 $468,994 $701,185
Mixed (Bootstrap + Extremes)  +54.0%   5.3:1  $-10,142 $35,681 $100,156 $162,606 $250,964 $477,802 $761,932
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AVERAGE ACROSS METHODS     +54.7%   7.3:1  $ 4,642 $50,909 $106,601 $163,337 $245,554 $449,395 $695,057
MEDIAN ACROSS METHODS      +60.9%   8.0:1  $39,048 $61,180 $113,199 $169,940 $253,286 $458,827 $689,085
========================================================================================================================

🎯 CONSENSUS FORECAST (Average of All Methods):
• Expected Return (90 days): +54.7%
• Target Price: $163,337
• Risk/Reward Ratio: 7.3:1
• 95% Confidence Range: $50,909 to $449,395
• Extreme Downside (5% chance): Below $50,909 (-51.8%)
• Extreme Upside (5% chance): Above $449,395 (+325.5%)
• 📈 Probability of Profit: 75.0% chance of making money
• 📉 Probability of Loss: 25.0% chance of losing money

================================================================================
     ENHANCED BITCOIN MONTE CARLO SUMMARY (206 Days)
                    Method: Fat Tails (Student-t)
================================================================================
Median outcome: +20.1% change
Risk/Reward ratio: 3.4:1
→ 99% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $-100,378
→ 95% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $19,116
→ 75% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $75,756
→ Median value in 206 days $126,808
→ 75% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $202,131
→ 95% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $400,459
→ 99% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $689,085
================================================================================
→ VaR (5%): $19,116 (-81.9%)
→ VaR (1%): $-100,378 (-195.0%)

📈 PRICE CHART WITH MONTE CARLO LEVELS:
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================================================================================
     ENHANCED BITCOIN MONTE CARLO SUMMARY (206 Days)
                    Method: Mixed (Bootstrap + Extremes)
================================================================================
Median outcome: +54.0% change
Risk/Reward ratio: 5.3:1
→ 99% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $-10,142
→ 95% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $35,681
→ 75% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $100,156
→ Median value in 206 days $162,606
→ 75% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $250,964
→ 95% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $477,802
→ 99% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $761,932
================================================================================
→ VaR (5%): $35,681 (-66.2%)
→ VaR (1%): $-10,142 (-109.6%)

📈 PRICE CHART WITH MONTE CARLO LEVELS:
--------------------------------------------------
No description has been provided for this image 
🚀 RUNNING COMPLETE YTD ANALYSIS WITH AUTOMATIC CHART...
=== DATAFRAME PREPARATION ===
Date range: 2011-08-18 00:00:00 to 2025-06-07 00:00:00
Total data points: 5010
Price range: $2.24 to $111673.28

Using 2025 for YTD calculation
========================================================================================================================
                           ENHANCED DRIFT RATE COMPARISON - HISTORICAL vs YTD
========================================================================================================================
Method               Hist Daily   Hist Annual %   YTD Daily    YTD Annual %    Difference %   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Simple Mean          0.003257        118.89%    0.001084         39.58%        -79.31%
Geometric Mean       0.001834         95.20%    0.000818         29.86%        -65.34%
Log Returns          0.001832         66.88%    0.001084         39.58%        -27.30%
Volatility-Adjusted  0.002340         85.39%    0.000976         35.63%        -49.77%
Rolling Window       0.002197         80.20%    0.001084         39.58%        -40.62%
Regime-Aware         0.003257        118.89%    0.000818         29.86%        -89.03%

SUMMARY STATISTICS:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Metric                    Historical      YTD             Difference     
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average Annual %               94.24%         35.68%        -58.56%
Median Annual %                90.30%         37.60%        -52.69%
Std Dev %                      19.32%          4.35%        -14.97%

🎯 KEY INSIGHTS:
--------------------------------------------------
📉 YTD performance is UNDERPERFORMING historical median
• Historical median: 90.30% annually
• YTD compound annual: 29.86% annually
• Performance gap: -60.43%

📊 MONTE CARLO RECOMMENDATIONS:
--------------------------------------------------
• Conservative (lower): 0.298610 daily (10899.3% annual)
• Aggressive (higher): 0.902960 daily (32958.0% annual)
• Blended (70% hist, 30% YTD): 0.721655 daily (26340.4% annual)
• Historical median: 0.902960 daily (32958.0% annual)
• YTD-based: 0.298610 daily (10899.3% annual)
• Low historical variation allows using either mean or median


================================================================================
🎯 KEY YTD METRICS
================================================================================
📅 YTD Period: 2025-01-01 to 2025-06-07
⏱️  Days Elapsed: 157
📈 YTD Total Return: +11.90%

🎯 YTD Annual Drift: +29.86%
📊 Historical Median: +90.30%
🔄 Difference: -60.43% (UNDERPERFORMING)

📊 GENERATING PERFORMANCE CHART...
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📊 CHART SUMMARY:
   • YTD Period: 2025-01-02 to 2025-06-07
   • Current YTD Return: +11.9%
   • Expected at Benchmark Pace: +38.8%
   • Performance Gap: -26.9%
   • Status: UNDERPERFORMING benchmark

💾 SAVE THESE VALUES:
ytd_annual_drift = 0.298610
historical_median = 0.902960
performance_gap = -60.43%

📈 Chart generated successfully!
   • Final YTD return: 11.9%
   • Final benchmark: 38.8%
   • Final gap: -26.9%

🎯 MARKET SIMILARITY ANALYSIS - NON-OVERLAPPING VERSION
============================================================
📊 Calculating market features...

🎯 CURRENT FEATURES ANALYSIS:
   Days since ATH: 16
   % from ATH: -5.68%
   RSI-14: 53.7

🔍 Finding similar periods...
✅ Found 6 diverse periods
📊 Analyzing top 3 most similar periods

🏆 TOP 3 SIMILAR PERIODS (NON-OVERLAPPING CHARTS)
================================================================================

#1 MATCH (Score: 0.998) - 28 features
📅 Period: 2024-09-05 00:00:00 to 2024-11-04 00:00:00
🔍 Current Signal Date: 2025-06-07 00:00:00 (Today's analysis date)
🔍 Key Comparisons:
   Days since ATH : Now   16.0 | Then  235.0 | Diff -219.0
   % from ATH     : Now   -5.7 | Then   -8.1 | Diff   +2.4
   30d return     : Now   13.0 | Then    5.9 | Diff   +7.0
   RSI-14         : Now   53.7 | Then   51.3 | Diff   +2.3
📈 What happened next:
   5d :  +13.1%
   10d:  +28.8%
   20d:  +44.5%
   30d:  +45.6%
   60d:  +44.7%
   90d:  +44.0%
No description has been provided for this image 
   └─ Non-overlapping chart created for Match #1

────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

#2 MATCH (Score: 0.997) - 28 features
📅 Period: 2021-07-18 00:00:00 to 2021-09-16 00:00:00
🔍 Current Signal Date: 2025-06-07 00:00:00 (Today's analysis date)
🔍 Key Comparisons:
   Days since ATH : Now   16.0 | Then  155.0 | Diff -139.0
   % from ATH     : Now   -5.7 | Then  -26.4 | Diff  +20.7
   30d return     : Now   13.0 | Then   20.9 | Diff   -7.9
   RSI-14         : Now   53.7 | Then   52.4 | Diff   +1.2
📈 What happened next:
   5d :  -15.0%
   10d:   -9.5%
   20d:  +15.9%
   30d:  +27.4%
   60d:  +33.2%
   90d:   +2.3%
No description has been provided for this image 
   └─ Non-overlapping chart created for Match #2

────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

#3 MATCH (Score: 0.997) - 28 features
📅 Period: 2021-08-02 00:00:00 to 2021-10-01 00:00:00
🔍 Current Signal Date: 2025-06-07 00:00:00 (Today's analysis date)
🔍 Key Comparisons:
   Days since ATH : Now   16.0 | Then  170.0 | Diff -154.0
   % from ATH     : Now   -5.7 | Then  -25.8 | Diff  +20.1
   30d return     : Now   13.0 | Then   16.9 | Diff   -3.9
   RSI-14         : Now   53.7 | Then   58.1 | Diff   -4.4
📈 What happened next:
   5d :  +14.9%
   10d:  +19.3%
   20d:  +29.2%
   30d:  +27.4%
   60d:  +18.3%
   90d:   -2.1%
No description has been provided for this image 
   └─ Non-overlapping chart created for Match #3

Applying clustering filter with 10-day window...
  Filtered from 185 to 17 periods
Found 5 periods with correlation >= 0.7

Top correlated periods:
1. 2022-09-14 to 2023-02-18 (Year: 2022, Correlation: 0.8584)
   Extended to: 2023-08-17 (+180 days)
2. 2023-06-20 to 2023-11-24 (Year: 2023, Correlation: 0.8405)
   Extended to: 2024-05-22 (+180 days)
3. 2013-04-26 to 2013-09-30 (Year: 2013, Correlation: 0.8324)
   Extended to: 2014-03-29 (+180 days)
4. 2015-06-21 to 2015-11-25 (Year: 2015, Correlation: 0.8186)
   Extended to: 2016-05-23 (+180 days)
5. 2019-09-24 to 2020-02-28 (Year: 2019, Correlation: 0.8011)
   Extended to: 2020-08-26 (+180 days)
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Detailed correlation results:
  start_date   end_date  correlation  year  period_length  extended_length
0 2022-09-14 2023-02-18     0.858436  2022            158              338
1 2023-06-20 2023-11-24     0.840454  2023            158              338
2 2013-04-26 2013-09-30     0.832439  2013            158              338
3 2015-06-21 2015-11-25     0.818559  2015            158              338
4 2019-09-24 2020-02-28     0.801068  2019            158              338

Best match details:
Period: 2022-09-14 to 2023-02-18
Correlation: 0.8584

=== CALLING bitcoin_analysis_package ===
Before update data summary:
  Date range: 2011-08-18 to 2025-06-07
  Number of rows: 5010

CSV is already up to date.
After update (unchanged) data summary:
  Date range: 2011-08-18 to 2025-06-07
  Number of rows: 5010


✅ Complete Bitcoin analysis completed successfully!
=== FINISHED bitcoin_analysis_package ===
           time           open           high          low       close  daily_return_percent       day  year  year_return_percent cycle_year  cycle_year_return_percent  quarter  quarter_return_percent month  monthly_return_percent  week  weekly_return_percent half_month  half_monthly_return_percent
5009 2025-06-07  104390.648438  105972.757812  103987.3125  105615.625              1.173454  Saturday  2025            13.143031      Year1                  13.143031        2               27.961551  June                0.934971    23              -0.032359    1H_June                     0.934971
ORIGINAL ROLLING RETURNS ANALYSIS:
================================================================================
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================================================================================
AUTOMATIC FORWARD PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS:
================================================================================
Using 4 similar dates identified above for forward performance analysis

FORWARD RETURNS ANALYSIS
================================================================================
Current 30-day return: -2.02%
Similar periods threshold: ±0.50%
Filters applied: Cycle Years: Year1, Quarters: 2
Total similar periods found: 4
================================================================================

Forward Returns Summary:
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Window     Count    Median     Mean       Std Dev    95% CI Lower 95% CI Upper Min        Max        % Positive  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  7 days        4       4.78%       4.87%       5.50%       -3.89%        13.63%       -1.78%      11.70%       75.0%
 14 days        4       5.66%       5.96%       5.26%       -2.42%        14.33%       -0.16%      12.67%       75.0%
 30 days        4      12.00%      12.07%      11.95%       -6.95%        31.10%        0.28%      24.03%      100.0%
 90 days        3     -18.03%     -22.26%      16.78%      -63.95%        19.44%      -40.75%      -7.99%        0.0%
180 days        3      73.42%      47.29%      61.71%     -106.00%       200.58%      -23.18%      91.64%       66.7%
365 days        3     271.45%     192.76%     185.10%     -267.06%       652.59%      -18.69%     325.52%       66.7%

Top 5 Similar Periods (with 90-day forward returns):
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Start Date   End Date     Forward Return  Cycle Year   Quarter 
2021-04-03   2021-07-02   -40.75%       Year1        2       
2013-05-05   2013-08-03   -18.03%       Year1        2       
2013-05-02   2013-07-31    -7.99%       Year1        2       
================================================================================

Dates with sufficient 14-day forward data for chart: 4

Showing forward performance chart for these 4 periods:
  1. 2013-05-02
  2. 2013-05-05
  3. 2021-04-03
  4. 2025-04-15
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ORIGINAL ROLLING RETURNS ANALYSIS:
================================================================================
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================================================================================
AUTOMATIC FORWARD PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS:
================================================================================
Using 3 similar dates identified above for forward performance analysis

FORWARD RETURNS ANALYSIS
================================================================================
Current 30-day return: 2.28%
Similar periods threshold: ±0.50%
Filters applied: Cycle Years: Year1, Quarters: 2
Total similar periods found: 3
================================================================================

Forward Returns Summary:
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Window     Count    Median     Mean       Std Dev    95% CI Lower 95% CI Upper Min        Max        % Positive  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  7 days        3      -2.70%      -1.71%      11.90%      -31.26%        27.85%      -13.07%      10.66%       33.3%
 14 days        3       3.67%      -5.88%      25.65%      -69.60%        57.84%      -34.94%      13.63%       66.7%
 30 days        3      21.42%      10.14%      43.21%      -97.20%       117.48%      -37.60%      46.59%       66.7%
 90 days        2      39.10%      39.10%      95.93%     -822.77%       900.96%      -28.73%     106.93%       50.0%
180 days        2     137.73%     137.73%     181.10%    -1489.42%      1764.88%        9.67%     265.79%      100.0%
365 days        2     213.54%     213.54%     356.01%    -2985.11%      3412.20%      -38.20%     465.28%       50.0%

Top 5 Similar Periods (with 90-day forward returns):
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Start Date   End Date     Forward Return  Cycle Year   Quarter 
2021-05-07   2021-08-05   -28.73%       Year1        2       
2017-04-10   2017-07-09   106.93%       Year1        2       
================================================================================

Dates with sufficient 30-day forward data for chart: 3

Showing forward performance chart for these 3 periods:
  1. 2017-04-10
  2. 2021-05-07
  3. 2025-04-17
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ORIGINAL ROLLING RETURNS ANALYSIS:
================================================================================